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The elemental ratios of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C:N:P) within organic matter play a key role in coupling biogeochemical cycles in the global ocean. At the cellular level, these ratios are controlled by physiological responses to the environment. But linking these cellular‐level processes to global biogeochemical cycles remains challenging. We present a novel model framework that combines knowledge of phytoplankton cellular functioning with global scale hydrographic data, to assess the role of variable carbon‐to‐phosphorus ratios (R_C:P) on the distribution of export production. We implement a trait‐based mechanistic model of phytoplankton growth into a global biogeochemical inverse model to predict global patterns of phytoplankton physiology and stoichiometry that are consistent with both biological growth mechanisms and hydrographic carbon and nutrient observations. We compare this model to empirical parameterizations relatingR_C:Pto temperature or phosphate concentration. We find that the way the model represents variable stoichiometry affects the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon export, with globally integrated fluxes varying by up to 10% (1.3 Pg C yr⁻¹) across models. Despite these differences, all models exhibit strong consistency with observed dissolved inorganic carbon and phosphate concentrations (R² > 0.9), underscoring the challenge of selecting the most accurate model structure. We also find that the choice of parameterization impacts the capacity of changingR_C:Pto buffer predicted export declines. Our novel framework offers a pathway by which additional biological information might be used to reduce the structural uncertainty in model representations of phytoplankton stoichiometry, potentially improving our capacity to project future changes.

 

Establishing links between microbial diversity and environmental processes requires resolving the high degree of functional variation among closely related lineages or ecotypes. Here, we implement and validate an improved metagenomic approach that estimates the spatial biogeography and environmental regulation of ecotype-specific replication patterns (RObs) across ocean regions. A total of 719 metagenomes were analyzed from meridional Bio-GO-SHIP sections in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Accounting for sequencing bias and anchoring replication estimates in genome structure were critical for identifying physiologically relevant biological signals. For example, ecotypes within the dominant marine cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus exhibited distinct diel cycles in RObs that peaked between 19:00–22:00. Additionally, both Prochlorococcus ecotypes and ecotypes within the highly abundant heterotroph Pelagibacter (SAR11) demonstrated systematic biogeographies in RObs that differed from spatial patterns in relative abundance. Finally, RObs was significantly regulated by nutrient stress and temperature, and explained by differences in the genomic potential for nutrient transport, energy production, cell wall structure, and replication. Our results suggest that our new approach to estimating replication is reflective of gross population growth. Moreover, this work reveals that the interaction between adaptation and environmental change drives systematic variability in replication patterns across ocean basins that is ecotype-specific, adding an activity-based dimension to our understanding of microbial niche space.

 

Collective behavior is an emergent property of numerous complex systems, from financial markets to cancer cells to predator-prey ecological systems. Characterizing modes of collective behavior is often done through human observation, training generative models, or other supervised learning techniques. Each of these cases requires knowledge of and a method for characterizing the macro-state(s) of the system. This presents a challenge for studying novel systems where there may be little prior knowledge. Here, we present a new unsupervised method of detecting emergent behavior in complex systems, and discerning between distinct collective behaviors. We require only metrics, d (1) , d (2) , defined on the set of agents, X , which measure agents’ nearness in variables of interest. We apply the method of diffusion maps to the systems ( X , d ( i ) ) to recover efficient embeddings of their interaction networks. Comparing these geometries, we formulate a measure of similarity between two networks, called the map alignment statistic (MAS). A large MAS is evidence that the two networks are codetermined in some fashion, indicating an emergent relationship between the metrics d (1) and d (2) . Additionally, the form of the macro-scale organization is encoded in the covariances among the two sets of diffusion map components. Using these covariances we discern between different modes of collective behavior in a data-driven, unsupervised manner. This method is demonstrated on a synthetic flocking model as well as empirical fish schooling data. We show that our state classification subdivides the known behaviors of the school in a meaningful manner, leading to a finer description of the system’s behavior. 

Linking ‘omics measurements with biogeochemical cycles is a widespread challenge in microbial community ecology. Here, we propose applying genomic adaptation as ‘biosensors’ for microbial investments to overcome nutrient stress. We then integrate this genomic information with a trait-based model to predict regional shifts in the elemental composition of marine plankton communities. We evaluated this approach using metagenomic and particulate organic matter samples from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans. We find that our genome-based trait model significantly improves our prediction of particulate C : P (carbon : phosphorus) across ocean regions. Furthermore, we detect previously unrecognized ocean areas of iron, nitrogen and phosphorus stress. In many ecosystems, it can be very challenging to quantify microbial stress. Thus, a carefully calibrated genomic approach could become a widespread tool for understanding microbial responses to environmental changes and the biogeochemical outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Conceptual challenges in microbial community ecology’. 

Are the oceans turning into deserts? Rising temperature, increasing surface stratification, and decreasing vertical inputs of nutrients are expected to cause an expansion of warm, nutrient deplete ecosystems. Such an expansion is predicted to negatively affect a trio of key ocean biogeochemical features: phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export. However, phytoplankton communities are complex adaptive systems with immense diversity that could render them at least partially resilient to global changes. This can be illustrated by the biology of theProchlorococcus“collective.” Adaptations to counter stress, use of alternative nutrient sources, and frugal resource allocation can allowProchlorococcusto buffer climate‐driven changes in nutrient availability. In contrast, cell physiology is more sensitive to temperature changes. Here, we argue that biogeochemical models need to consider the adaptive potential of diverse phytoplankton communities. However, a full understanding of phytoplankton resilience to future ocean changes is hampered by a lack of global biogeographic observations to test theories. We propose that the resilience may in fact be greater in oligotrophic waters than currently considered with implications for future predictions of phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export.

 

A warmer ocean will change plankton physiological rates, alter plankton community composition, and in turn affect ecosystem functions, such as primary production, recycling, and carbon export. To predict how temperature changes affect plankton community dynamics and function, we developed a mechanistic trait‐based model of unicellular plankton (auto‐hetero‐mixotrophic protists and bacteria). Temperature dependencies are specifically implemented on cellular process rather than at the species level. As the uptake of resources and metabolic processes have different temperature dependencies, changes in the thermal environment will favor organisms with different investments in processes such as photosynthesis and biosynthesis. The precise level of investments, however, is conditional on the limiting process and is ultimately determined dynamically by competition and predation within the emergent community of the water column. We show how an increase in temperature can intensify nutrient limitation by altering organisms' interactions, and reduce relative cell‐size in the community. Further, we anticipate that a combination of temperature and resource limitation reduces ecosystem efficiency at capturing carbon due to strengthening of the microbial loop. By explicitly representing the effects of temperature on traits responsible for growth, we demonstrate how changes on the individual level can be scaled up to trends at the ecosystem level, helping to discern direct from indirect effects of temperature on natural plankton communities.